Welcome back to our regular feature where we sift through thousands of new, health-related papers, and pick a few to summarize in a practical, simple, and not anxiety-inducing way.
Our main questions on each paper:
- In simple language, what does it say?
- Does it have good evidence?
- Should what it says matter to normal people?
- What simple thing, if anything, could a normal person do to take advantage of this finding?
Okay, away we go. And, as always, we rate each paper for practicality and level of interest, but we are mostly focused on finding ways to simplify findings. And more than anything else, we want to avoid over-optimization, so if a paper is telling you down to the minute how much sunlight to get at dawn, or that you should only drink coffee during eclipses, we are outta there.
This edition's articles and papers:
- Anti-Aging Tips From Blackjack and Finance Guru Ed Thorp https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-10/anti-aging-tips-from-blackjack-and-finance-guru-ed-thorp
- Is AI a better doctor than you? https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/are-you-ready-ai-be-better-doctor-than-you-2024a100070q?src=rss&form=fpf
- Fitness/Wellness Professionals as Social Media Content Creat... : ACSM's Health & Fitness Journal https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2023/01000/Fitness_Wellness_Professionals_as_Social_Media.11.aspx?context=FeaturedArticles&collectionId=1/
- Cardiorespiratory fitness is a strong and consistent predictor of morbidity and mortality among adults: an overview of meta-analyses representing over 20.9 million observations from 199 unique cohort studies | British Journal of Sports Medicine https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/09/bjsports-2023-107849?rss=1
Now, here are our takes on the papers:
Article: Healthspan and Blackjack
Practicality (5/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Interest (4/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Summary
Edward Thorp, a mathematics professor and hedge fund manager known for his blackjack strategies and investment success, shares insights on his approach to longevity. At 91, he emphasizes a well-managed program of exercise, diet, risk management, and proactive health checks to maintain his well-being. His philosophy marries the analytical skills from gambling and finance with personal health, focusing on empirical evidence and risk management to lead a healthy and productive life.
What is the article's main claim?
- Thorp uncontroversial suggests that a balanced combination of exercise, a healthy diet, and regular health assessments can significantly extend not just lifespan but also healthspan.
- He also emphasizes risk management, especially with age, and avoiding things with minimal benefit that could put out into injury and recovery cycles.
Are the methods and/or data it uses appropriate and convincing?
- It relies on Thorp's personal experiences and anecdotal evidence to support his claims, but he does refer to known studies, even if he is a little over-reliant on a few of the usual health popularizers
What do we know now that we didn't know before, if anything?
- The article doesn't introduce new scientific findings but provides a useful way of thinking about health by balancing both gains and risks.
- Thorp is also a striking role model for what is possible.
What simple and practical thing could a normal person do knowing this?
- People should be more scientific, in general, without adding in too many things with minimal benefit
- Always think in portfolio terms, about managing upside benefits and downside risks.
Article: AI Diagnosis Success
Practicality (3/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Interest (5/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Summary
Recent studies demonstrate that artificial intelligence (AI) is not just matching, but often outperforming human doctors in various medical diagnostic tasks. For instance, ChatGPT diagnosed ER patients correctly 97% of the time, while human doctors scored lower at 87%. Besides analytics, AI also excelled in empathetic communication, which often comes as a surprise.
What is the article's main claim?
- It summarizes papers showing that AI can diagnose accurately, often surpassing doctors.
- AI also provides empathetic communication, rated higher than human doctors in some studies.
Are the methods and/or data it uses appropriate and convincing?
- The effect sizes (AI's diagnostic performance) are significant and indicate a robust comparative advantage over human practitioners.
- Sample sizes, specificity of comparisons, and practical extrapolation to real-world scenarios are not detailed, hence caution is warranted.
What do we know now that we didn't know before, if anything?
- AI's capabilities in diagnostics are consistently advancing, offering scalable tools that often exceed doctors' performance.
- AI has the potential to gracefully handle patient interactions, making patients feel heard and less harried and stressed.
What simple and practical thing could a normal person do knowing this?
- People should increasingly trust AI tools for preliminary medical advice, but should still seek human medical expertise for comprehensive care.
Paper: Social Media Influencer Fitness Risks
Practicality (5/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Interest (3/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Summary
The article examines the potential health and legal risks of following fitness and wellness influencers on social media, a topic increasingly being discussed. It focuses on three legal cases to stress the importance of accurate representation, proper qualifications, and respect for intellectual property within the industry. The takeaway is that many wellness influencers continue to operate well outside whatever expertise they have, if any, promoting equivocal and often unsupported claims.
What is the paper's main claim?
- The article contends that fitness professionals on social media should be better qualified and much more transparent to minimize health and legal risks
- It implies that people are too uncritical in following such influencers, given their minimal expertise and fondness for weak findings.
Are the methods and/or data it uses appropriate and convincing?
- The paper relies on legal case studies, which provide concrete examples of the risks involved, but it doesn't employ quantitative data to measure the prevalence or impact of the issue.
What do we know now that we didn't know before, if anything?
- It provides specific instances where legal action was taken against influencers, providing a clearer picture of the consequences of unethical health and wellness practices on social media.
What simple and practical thing could a normal person do knowing this?
- Consumers should be wary of people claiming expertise in a broad range of topics, or peddling findings with minimal supporting evidence or effective sizes.
Paper: Fitness Predicts Health
Practicality (5/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Interest (4/5): 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️
Summary
The paper reveals that good cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is strongly linked to lower risk for various diseases and early death in adults. It analyzed results from many studies involving over 20 million people and found that for every small increase in fitness, the risk for heart failure, for instance, can drop by 18%.
What is the paper's main claim?
- High CRF significantly reduces the risk of premature death and chronic diseases.
- Even small increases in CRF have notable impacts on individual health.
Are the methods and/or data it uses appropriate and convincing?
- Extensive analysis of over 20 million observations lends weight to the findings.
- Methods are robust, but evidence is rated as moderate to low certainty.
What do we know now that we didn't know before, if anything?
- This paper consolidates existing knowledge, emphasizing the consistent and strong link between CRF and health outcomes.
- It identifies the need for more diverse and higher-quality studies, particularly among women and clinical populations.
What simple and practical thing could a normal person do knowing this?
- Engaging in regular aerobic exercise, even brisk walking, will generally improve CRF and one's health prospects.
Back next week with thoughtful and simplifying takes on papers getting attention. And if you see anything you want us to look at, let us know.
